All Shook Up

Last Updated (Tuesday, 04 May 2010 10:51) Written by Raymond Nakamura

Are you ready for the "big one"?

In any case, if you'd like some advance warning, maybe you should get a toad. According to a recent report, they may be able to tell when an earthquake is about to happen. 
 

Ancient Chinese Secret?

You may recall that Science World had an ancient Chinese earthquake detector on display a few years ago. It featured sculpted dragons that would drop a ball into the mouth of a toad. Unfortunately, it was just a model and didn't react when Vancouver had a minor shake-up during that period.
 

Toad You So

According to herpetologist Rachel A. Grant, however, toads she was studying in Italy predicted an earthquake. They disappeared from their breeding grounds a few days before the quake occurred. Some suggest that changes in the earth's crust may affect the ionosphere before an earthquake and Grant proposes the toads may be able to detect pre-seismic changes in gases or ions in the environment.

Shaking All Over

Although other cultures have believed that animals could predict earthquakes, scientists are still far from agreeing on a reliable method for prediction. And don't let me get distracted by the recent experiment in earthquakes and female anatomy...
 

Once Upon A Time

Even this toad incident seems to be more of an anecdote than an experiment. I think they'd have to look at both when toads did and did not behave differently and when earthquakes did and did not occur. A one-off incident is not enough.

But it's hard to get that that kind of data. Or at least hard to get funding to get that kind of data.
 

Risky Business

Still, I'm going to keep my eye on the neighbourhood toads and hope that before they disappear, my daughter's school with gets seismically upgraded.